It's been three years since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in India. Now, it feels like the pandemic is not affecting us as much. Even though the health problem seems to be better, getting the economy back to normal after the pandemic has been messy and not the same for everyone. While the more prominent businesses might have gotten better, the smaller ones, like street vendors and daily wage workers, might not have gotten better yet, and this is not shown well in the official information.

Apart from the pandemic, other things have made it hard for the economy to improve. These include problems with getting items delivered because of a big war in Europe, the pandemic coming back in China and their strict rules about movement, prices going up a lot in places like the US and UK, and banks being in trouble in the US after the Silicon Valley Bank in California failed. These problems worldwide have made it even more challenging for the Indian economy to grow while it's still trying to improve after the pandemic.

According to some ways of measuring, many parts of the economy are doing as well as before the pandemic. But it's important to remember that even before the pandemic, the Indian economy was not very stable. There were problems with how things were organized, changes in the economy's natural ups and downs, and choices made by the Government that all worked together to slow down the economy before the pandemic happened. This means that even if the economy goes back to how it was before the pandemic, the long-standing problems might make it hard to have excellent and steady growth. This kind of growth is essential if India wants to help many people get out of poverty, become a rich country, and provide jobs for the many people who join the workforce each year.

In addition to the difficulties, India is currently dealing with a world economy that's not growing as fast, many different political situations, the worry about climate change and what might happen because of it, more and more jobs being done by machines instead of people, and a world that might not want to trade as much as it used to. This article will focus on how COVID-19 has affected people's health and what might happen afterwards.

Economy Before the Pandemic

The pandemic was a significant and lasting shock for India, mainly because of how the economy was doing before Covid-19. When the first Covid-19 case was found in India, the economy was already in bad shape after a long time of not doing well. The pandemic worsened the existing problems, like not enough jobs, low money for people, troubles in rural areas, insufficient food, and unfairness between rich and poor.

COVID-19's Impact on India's Economy

The World Health Organization (WHO) said COVID-19 was a big problem on March 11. But until March 13, most people in India didn't think it was a big health emergency. They didn't feel like they needed to worry. There were 81 people with COVID-19 in India, and the country was trying to bring back Indians from other countries. They also limited people from other countries to only 19 out of 37 places. But by March 15, experts in health and diseases realized that the SARS-CoV-2 virus differed from different viruses. It could spread quickly, stay in the body longer without getting noticed, and move faster. On March 19, 2020, the Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, asked everyone to stay home (Janata Curfew). Then, on March 24, 2020, he said everyone needed to stay home for 21 days (lockdown). 

After that, the Government made a few more lockdowns to stop the virus from spreading. During these lockdowns, it was unfortunate to see how hard it was for migrants and how much they suffered. COVID-19 changed how people lived and made the world economy slow down. It affected people's social lives too. According to the WHO, the virus spread worldwide to almost 213 countries. This caused big problems for countries' health and money systems. Many countries closed their schools, shops, factories, and other places to stop the virus. This hurt different jobs and businesses a lot. There were also big problems with healthcare, money, and how people lived because of the virus.

Effects on Healthcare

• It's hard to find and take care of people who might have the virus.
• There are too many sick people for doctors and nurses to help.
• People with other illnesses also have trouble getting help because of this.
• There's not enough medicine in stores because so many people need it.
• We need to be very careful and take strong measures.

Money (Economy) Effects

• Getting basic things has become slower and less.
• Problems in getting a variety of things.
• Less buying and selling in the country and all around the world.
• Not much money comes from selling things globally.

How COVID-19 Affected People's Lives

• Services like health care had trouble getting the right help.
• Sports events, both in India and around the world, got cancelled or postponed.
• The tourism industry had a tough time.
• People couldn't celebrate festivals like before.
• Many people felt worried.
• People had to stay away from their family and friends.
• Restaurants, cafes, gyms, and shops had to close down.

Global Danger

COVID-19 has become a big problem all around the world. People fear it but are taking steps to stay safe from this nasty infection. However, if people think too negatively, the infection can spread, and the fear can cause societal problems. It's noticed that when people worry about the condition, it sometimes helps because it makes them more aware. This fear of COVID-19 has changed how people live all over the world. Making good choices for health depends on knowing the good and bad things about the options. Feeling scared can affect how people think in two steps. Also, how a person feels (happy or sad) depends on what others say. So, if more people feel bad, it can make others feel bad too. This can make people think more negatively about COVID-19 and feel more scared. It's essential to control this and make people feel less panicked.

India's Economy and COVID-19

Even before COVID-19, India's economy was doing very poorly. The economy's growth had been getting worse for eight quarters in a row. In March 2018, the economy grew by 8.2%, but by March 2020, it only increased by 3.1%. People were spending less money, and businesses invested less before the pandemic started. The total amount of money the country made in 2019-20 was the lowest it had been since 1975-76.

Things got worse when the pandemic started:

• Many people lost their jobs, and many got sick with COVID-19. By September 2020, the Indian economy was in a terrible state.
• More than ever, the economy shrank significantly in the first three months of 2020.
• Industries like making things and building things became much smaller, with the manufacturing sector shrinking by 39.3% and the construction sector by 50.3%. The overall services sector also became smaller by 20.6%.

As things get better and the country reopens, the economy is slowly improving because of the Government's actions. It's expected that this improvement will continue.

Getting Better After the Pandemic

After the pandemic, the Indian economy is trying to get better. This happens when people repurchase things, like things they need and services. There are four places where this demand comes from:

• People purchase items for their homes.
• Businesses spend money.
• The Government spends money.
• Goods are sold to other countries (exports).

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Good things happened too. During the recovery, the economy improved because the prices of things like materials were high. This helped companies, especially in metal and farming, make more money. Big companies did better than small ones during the pandemic, and they got stronger. Exports also improved. The IT (technology) sector improved because people worked from home and used technology more. But the recovery was not the same for everyone.

Some companies got better faster, like the big ones. This means the pandemic didn't hurt them for a long time. But many small companies and households struggled during the pandemic and are still trying to improve.

Signs of Getting Better After the Pandemic

In this part, we will discuss some things that show the economy is improving after the pandemic. However, remember, the pandemic isn't entirely over as of April 2021, and still more cases are happening.

• NIBRI Index: There's something called Nomura’s India Business Resumption Index. It helps us know how much the economy is getting back to normal. In February 2021, it was at 98.1 points. This is much better than the record low of 44.8 in April-June when the country was in lockdown.
• Investments: Foreign money entering India was around US$ 49.97 billion in 2019-20. Between 2020 and 2021 (until September 2020), about Rs. 12.9 trillion (US$ 174.31 billion) came from foreign investments in India.
• GDP Signs: The National Statistical Office said the economy shrank by about 7.7%. This was not as bad as the (-) 10.3% expected by the IMF in October 2020. The people who care for the country's money, RBI, thought the economy shrank by about 7.5%.
• Imports & Exports Coming Back: The things India buys from other countries increased by 7.6% in December 2020. The rise**** in the implications of things like jewellery, machines, and electric items shows that people in India are doing more business again.
• Money Markets Doing Better: The BSE index went up a lot, about 91%, from its lowest point in 10 months.
• GST Money Collection: The Government collected about Rs 1.15 lakh crore from the Goods and Services Tax (GST) in December 2020. This was the most since GST started.

India's Economy and Steps to Get Better

The Government did a few things to help the economy get better. Here's what they did:

• In March 2020, the Finance Minister announced a relief package of INR 1.7 trillion.
• In May 2020, the Prime Minister said there would be a COVID relief package worth INR 20 trillion. It was called Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan.
• This package was about 10% of the money the country makes (GDP).
• It included INR 1.7 lakh crore worth of free food and money for poor women and older adults.
• In November 2020, the Finance Minister said there would be a big plan to help the economy, and it was worth INR 2.65 lakh crore.

Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan

• Becoming Self-Reliant India Campaign This plan has five essential parts: economy, building things, using technology, the number of people, and what people want. 
• They're mainly using things from their own country instead of buying from other countries, making people want to buy something, and helping industries that sell stuff to other countries. 
• Banks, small businesses, and farming are the people who get the most help from this plan. This plan is helping around 500 million people in the health sector.

Household Savings

• The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) and RBI said that people in India saved more money compared to how much the country makes (GDP). This happened in the first part of the year 2020-21. Before this, the savings were less in 2018-19 and 2019-20.
• The person in charge of CMIE talked about a report from the McKinsey Global Institute. This report said people there would want to repurchase things when the pandemic ends in countries like the US, China, and Germany. This is because they will be able to move around more freely.
• When the rules about movement get better, people will have enough money to buy things. The money that people save will help the economy become better again.

Consumer Sentiment in India

• According to a report from CMIE, the way people feel about buying things in India was 46.8% lower in March 2021 than how they felt on average between April 2019 and March 2020.
• People in India saved more money, but their feelings about repurchasing things are not as good.
• The Index of Consumer Sentiments helps us know what people think about buying things that are not necessary and things that last long.
• The Government in India gave money to families during the lockdown through things like MGNREGA and PM-KISAN. This affected how people in rural areas felt about buying something.
• According to the Consumer Pyramids Household Survey by CMIE, the people who make more than Rs 10 lakh a year were the least affected in their feelings about buying things as of March 2021.

K- Shaped Recovery

• The Indian economy is supposed to improve, but not everyone will benefit similarly.
• This kind of recovery was easiest to see from July to September 2020.
• But because some people are getting more money and others aren't, how people spend and how much the economy grows will be affected.

India's Response to the Pandemic

The lockdowns caused a lot of damage to India's economy. To make it better, on May 12, 2020, India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a plan of 20 lakh crore rupees, about 10% of the money India makes (GDP). The goal was to make India strong**** in the world and help people who suffered because of COVID-19. The Finance Minister explained the details of this plan in five press conferences. The program is based on an old Indian idea called "Atma Nirbhar Bharat Abhiyan," which means "Self-Reliant India Campaign." This plan includes improving healthcare and using money from the Reserve Bank of India. There are five main areas:

1. Economy: It needs a big improvement, not just small changes.
2. Infrastructure: This should be a big part of modern India.
3. Our System: Use technology to improve things, like meeting people's needs today.
4. Our Demography: India has a lot of people, so let's use their skills.
5. Demand: Make things people want and need, and this will help the economy grow.

The plan's money was used in different areas to make India stronger. The main focus was on small businesses and poor people, including farmers and workers who moved from place to place. Farming, animal care, and fishing were given money to help them grow. There were also changes in taxes and dates for people and businesses. The plan helped farmers and workers who didn't have much money, providing them with food and housing. It also gave money to street vendors and farmers. There were business rules changes, like mining and making things for defence. More money was given for work and public health. Education with technology was also a focus.

Many countries around the world are doing things to help their economies. These measures are different in each country. Some are changing taxes, helping businesses, and supporting people who need money.

Challenges for India

There was a time when the whole world had to deal with COVID-19. India also had to shut down entirely because it has a lot of people in a small space, and its healthcare isn't huge. So, everyone had to stay home, which hurt India's economy. The Government and the Reserve Bank of India tried to help by giving a lot of money to make the economy better again. But it wasn't clear if it would work well. The Prime Minister of India talked about making India self-reliant, which means India should make its things. Many countries rely too much on China for things they need. Because of the COVID-19 lockdown, the world couldn't get enough masks and other things. Also, because of China's strict rules, companies must spend more money to work there. So, many companies decided to move their factories somewhere else.

Unemployment and Poverty

The pandemic-induced lockdowns resulted in millions of job losses across various sectors. The informal sector, which constitutes a significant portion of India's workforce, was hit particularly hard. The challenge now is not only to restore lost jobs but also to ensure sustainable employment opportunities for the growing force.

Supply Chain Disruptions

Global supply chain disruptions affected manufacturing and trade, causing shortages and price hikes for essential goods. India's heavy reliance on imports for certain goods highlighted the vulnerability of its supply chains. Rebuilding resilient supply chains and boosting domestic manufacturing becomes crucial to avoid such vulnerabilities in the future.

Healthcare Infrastructure

The pandemic exposed the weaknesses in India's healthcare infrastructure. The surge in cases strained hospitals and healthcare systems, revealing the need for substantial investments in healthcare facilities, medical research, and personnel training to handle future health crises better.

Informal Sector Reforms

Many of India's workforce operate in the informal sector, without proper job security or social safety nets. The pandemic highlighted the urgency of formalizing this sector to provide better protection for workers and to ensure their access to various government initiatives.

Opportunities for India

Digital Transformation

India, with its thriving tech industry and a young demographic, has the potential to become a global digital hub. This transformation can improve efficiency, facilitate e-commerce growth, and enhance service delivery in various sectors.

Renewable Energy

India's commitment to renewable energy received a boost during the pandemic. The nation's potential for solar and wind energy is immense, and investing in these sectors can promote sustainable development, create jobs, and reduce reliance on fossil fuels.

Atmanirbhar Bharat (Self-Reliant India)

The crisis underscored the need for self-reliance in critical sectors. The "Atmanirbhar Bharat" initiative aims to promote domestic manufacturing and reduce import dependence. This push for self-reliance presents opportunities for local industries to grow and innovate.

Infrastructure Development

The National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP) aims to invest in vital infrastructure sectors like roads, railways, and urban development. These investments can create jobs, enhance connectivity, and boost economic growth in the long run.

A Future Ahead

India's economic recovery post-pandemic hinges on its ability to address challenges effectively and leverage opportunities. The following strategies could pave the way for a brighter financial future:

Skill Development and Education

Investing in skill development and education is crucial to equip the workforce with the skills needed for the evolving job landscape. This includes promoting vocational training and digital literacy to ensure employability in a technology-driven economy.

Sustainable Development

Prioritizing sustainability in economic growth can lead to long-term benefits. Green initiatives, such as expanding renewable energy capacity and implementing eco-friendly practices in industries, can contribute to economic growth and environmental conservation.

Inclusive Growth

Efforts towards economic recovery should prioritize inclusive growth, ensuring that marginalized communities also benefit from the revival. Targeted policies and social safety nets can help bridge the economic divide and reduce poverty and inequality.

Ease of Doing Business

India must continue to improve its business environment to attract investments and foster entrepreneurship. Streamlining regulations, reducing bureaucratic hurdles, and ensuring transparency can make the country a more attractive destination for both domestic and foreign investors.

Global Engagement

Engaging with the global economy is essential for India's recovery. Trade diversification, participating in global supply chains, and strengthening diplomatic and trade relations can open new avenues for economic growth.

Conclusion

India's journey to recover economically after the pandemic is a complex task that involves facing challenges and making the most of opportunities. By concentrating on sustainable growth, using new technology, and ensuring everyone benefits, India can come out of this challenging time more robust and resilient. Planning carefully and ensuring that policies work well to create a promising future for everyone is essential as the country moves forward.

Experts worldwide think India will become important in international relationships in the 21st century. But there are many things to consider to make this happen. First, India needs to change different parts of the economy, not just focus on selling off essential areas. Second, India needs to spend more on education, research, and new ideas to play a significant role globally. India has a lot of resources and young people, so it can use these things to do well.

Also, as its competitor China has done, India needs to improve in making things. China has some problems with other countries, so India has a chance to shine. India can become a big player if it has a good plan and does things like 'Make in India'. Maybe a new version of this program could focus on science, technology, and other vital areas. This way, India can use global opportunities to become a solid modern country.

India's economy seems to be doing better than expected after the pandemic. The Government has done things to help the economy during the slowdown. The pandemic has changed how India's economy works, and this might have some long-term effects.