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Impact of Demonetization on Indian Economy

Impact of Demonetization on Indian Economy

On November 8, 2016, a significant event known as "demonetization" occurred in India. Demonetization is when a currency becomes worthless. This was the third time this happened in the country. Demonetization is when the government decides that certain types of money are no longer considered legal tender, which means they can't be used as valid money anymore. India had experienced this kind of change two times before. The first time was in 1946, and then again in 1978. On both occasions, the goal was to combat issues like people not paying their taxes correctly and keeping money hidden outside the regular economy. In 1978, the government, led by a group called the Janata Party, stopped using banknotes of ₹1,000, ₹5,000, and ₹10,000. This was done to prevent the use of fake money and to stop money from being kept hidden to avoid paying taxes.

The main reason for doing this was to stop using illegal money called "black money". The Prime Minister of India then, Narendra Modi, developed this idea. The old money was replaced with new money. This helped in stopping illegal activities involving money. The government hoped this would also make the country's economy better.

In November 2016, the government made a solid effort to stop illegal money. Some other countries like Fiji, Singapore, and the Philippines had done this before India. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) took care of money-related things and took out the old Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes. People with these senior notes were given time until January 2017 to exchange them.

This move was necessary because it affected many groups, like politicians, business people, terrorists, and others who did illegal things with money. The old notes were not accepted anymore from midnight on November 8, 2016. This helped in controlling issues like fake money and avoiding taxes.

Demonetization was a way to remove illegal money from the country's economy. It was also aimed at making people use electronic transactions like credit cards instead of cash. This change was supposed to help in many ways, like controlling prices and strengthening the economy.

People had some difficulties because this was a sudden decision without much preparation. But the Income Tax Department found a lot of illegal money. This helped in catching those who were doing illegal things with cash.

Demonetization aimed to improve the country's economic system by removing illegal money and fake notes. The old Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes were replaced with new ones. This was meant to make the economy cleaner and more robust.

So, the main points are that demonetization is when the government stops particular money from being used, it helps prevent black money, and it aims to improve the economy by removing bad money and promoting electronic transactions. It wasn't easy, but it positively impacted the economy and the lives of the people in India.

Reasons Behind Demonetization

Demonetization is a practical decision made by a government to change the value of its currency, and it can have various reasons behind it. In India, several factors led to the decision of demonetization in 2016, which aimed to tackle critical economic issues.

Dealing with Black Money

One of the main reasons behind demonetization in India was to get rid of black money. Black money is earned illegally or unreported to the government, thus avoiding taxes. People and places with black money can now be found out more quickly because of this decision. Some businesses, like those selling property, jewellery, foreign capital, and lending money privately, kept a lot of money hidden that was not being recorded properly. This money mainly existed as paper money. This money that wasn't being recorded had made a hidden economy in the country. This kind of illegal money found its way into bank accounts in different ways, either directly or indirectly.

Reducing Fake Currency and Terror Funding

Another important reason was to decrease the circulation of fake currency notes and to cut off the funding for terrorist activities. Counterfeit currency notes and questionable money threatened the country's security and economy. By invalidating specific notes, the government hoped to disrupt these illegal activities.

Fighting Corruption

Demonetization was also intended to fight corruption. Corruption happens when people misuse their power for personal gain. By changing the currency, the government aimed to reduce the amount of corrupt practices in the country. 

Demonetization had a considerable impact on various aspects of the economy:

Identification of Black Money

The move helped identify people and businesses holding unaccounted money. Sectors like property dealers, jewellers, and private money lenders often had substantial amounts of undisclosed cash. Demonetization made it harder for them to continue collecting such money.

Counterfeit Currency

Fake currency notes were a big problem. Demonetization made those fake notes worthless, severely affecting the counterfeit currency syndicates. Removing the highest denomination currency notes from circulation substantially impacted the groups making phoney currency. This step also halted the funding of terrorism in places like Jammu and Kashmir, areas hit by Naxalite insurgency, and the northeastern states. The counterfeit currency makers were left with notes that were now worthless, while the new currency notes were made with high levels of security, making it nearly impossible to create fakes. This was a precise strike against the fake currency moving around in the economy. The counterfeit currency notes turned into nothing more than pieces of paper after demonetization.

Transition to Cashless Economy

One of the main goals of demonetization was to encourage the use of digital transactions and less cash. More and more transactions without physical money would lead to more openness about income, which in turn would increase tax collection. With fewer cash transactions, other forms of payment would become more popular. Online transactions using mobile apps, e-wallets, online banking, and debit/credit cards would significantly increase demand.

Long-term Economic Growth

While demonetization had short-term adverse effects on sectors like real estate and household consumption, long-term benefits outweighed the temporary setbacks. It was expected that the Gross Domestic Product**** (GDP) growth would improve in the coming years. 

Impact of Demonetization on the Indian Economy

Demonetization, in simple terms, means suddenly stopping the use of specific currency notes. This can create problems like less money for buying things, less investment, fewer things being produced, and fewer jobs. Let's see how it affected different parts of the Indian economy:

Effect on Hidden Economy: Black money, or money not reported to tax authorities, has been a notable challenge in India. Demonetization was a powerful attempt to address this issue by invalidating particular currency notes. This move aimed to uncover hidden money, bringing it into the formal financial system where it can be taxed appropriately. Sectors known for dealing with unaccounted cash, such as property dealers, jewellers, and private lenders, were particularly affected.

Effect on Money Availability: The sudden withdrawal of older 500 and 1000 Rupee notes caused a temporary shortage of currency in circulation. This liquidity shock led to challenges in day-to-day transactions, as people had limited access to legal tender. However, introducing and circulating new currency notes over time helped ease this shortage and restore everyday transactions.

Effect on Consumer Behavior: Consumer demand in various sectors fluctuated due to demonetization. Sectors that heavily relied on cash transactions, such as consumer goods, real estate, gold, and luxury items, experienced a decline in demand. The reduced availability of cash impacted people's spending patterns, leading to adjustments in consumption habits.

Effect on Prices: The decreased consumer demand resulting from demonetization had a moderating effect on prices. Sectors like consumer goods saw marginal price reductions, while real estate prices were more greatly affected, especially in cash payment transactions. Over time, as new modes of payment gained traction, these sectors might see price adjustments as well.

Effect on GDP: The temporary reduction in consumption demand following demonetization could have impacted the formation of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). However, this impact was partly offset by increased festival-related spending. The overall effect on GDP was expected to be limited, as deferred demand could be reintroduced into the economy once cash availability normalized.

Effect on Banks: Banks experienced an influx of old 500 and 1000 Rupee notes as people were directed to deposit or exchange them. This led to enhanced liquidity within banks, allowing them to use the surplus for lending. While this liquidity boost was beneficial in the short term, some deposited money might be withdrawn once the situation stabilizes. Therefore, the impact on the banking system's savings might be more short-term.

Effect on Digital Transactions: The push towards a cashless economy received a considerable boost from demonetization. The reduced availability of physical currency prompted people to explore alternative modes of payment, such as digital transaction systems, E-wallets, apps, online banking, and credit/debit card usage. This behaviour change contributed to the growth**** and strengthening of digital payment infrastructure.

Impact of Demonetization on Different Parts of India's Economy

Effect on Different Economic Participants: Some parts of society that rely heavily on cash transactions were directly affected by demonetization. Farmers, small traders, small businesses, service providers, households, and even political parties faced difficulties as they often used cash for everyday activities. These groups had to adjust due to the sudden shortage of cash. Demonetization aimed to uncover many industries involved in black money, and it affected various sectors of India's economy like this:

Real Estate: It's still too early to entirely understand the changes caused by demonetization, but its impact on real estate is noticeable. Since the announcement of demonetization, its effects have been felt in the real estate sector, which was already facing slow growth. This sector is influenced by demonetization since it has a history of using many black money and cash transactions. However, over time, the Indian real estate sector is expected to become stronger, healthier, and able to grow steadily.

Agriculture and Related Sectors: This sector often has a lot of cash transactions, so its situation might not be great until there's enough money in rural areas. Farmers might face a shortage of cash for a while, which could lead to delays in payments, affecting related companies**** in the short term.

Automobiles: The restriction on cash transactions and the temporary lack of cash affected the purchase of two-wheelers, where cash transactions were every day. The usual slowdown in November and December for passenger vehicles could become more severe as consumers delay purchases due to the lack of money and expectations of interest rate cuts. But this issue will be temporary since most people buy passenger vehicles using loans. However, the impact on the commercial vehicle market could be more expressive due to the economic slowdown caused by demonetization.

Consumer Durables: About 70-75% of transactions in this sector are done in cash, so there was an immediate drop in product demand. However, this sector will eventually stabilize as people get used to the new currency and digital payments.

Financial Sector: The banking sector benefited the most from demonetization. The increase in deposits in current and savings accounts (CASA) led to more money for banks, increasing their earnings. However, this increase won't be unusually high since the Reserve Bank of India temporarily increased the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) to manage the extra money.

Analysis of Demonetization in India

Pros of Demonetization

  • Demonetization controls the problem of black money too. This means that the use of illegally obtained money would decrease.
  • Funding illegal activities like terrorism using black money would also be affected.
  • The elimination of counterfeit currency, which harms the economy, would be achieved through demonetization.
  • The deposits in banks would increase, leading to more lending and potentially lower interest rates.
  • Black money contributes to hidden demand and inflation. Demonetization could help in controlling inflation.
  • The government could increase revenue by taxing certain deposits at high-income tax rates.
  • Real estate, often associated with black money, could see property rates stabilize or decrease due to this measure.
  • The move aligns with the government's goal of promoting a cashless economy.
  • Honest workers would benefit from this change.
  • Elections often involve using black money, but demonetization could curb illicit funding methods.
  • This move might lead to a reduction in the government's fiscal deficit.

Cons of Demonetization

  • Not all black money is in the form of cash, and this measure doesn't address the root causes like corruption and tax evasion.
  • There was a sudden and high demand for the new currency notes.
  • The ordinary people panicked, resulting in incidents like the looting of shops and increased insurance claims for cash-carrying companies. The panic also led to the hoarding of currency, reducing market liquidity.
  • Small traders and shopkeepers faced difficulties.
  • Black marketing of new notes emerged.
  • Establishments like banks and hospitals faced stress.
  • Rural areas might see reduced demand due to limited cash usage. Additionally, experts worried about its impact on the small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) sector and agricultural production. Prominent economist Pronab Sen warned that demonetization could have a negative spillover effect on industries like fertilizer and tractors.

Challenges

  • The banking sector's reach is limited, with many villages lacking nearby banks.
  • Despite efforts like the Jan Dhan Yojana, banking penetration remains low, averaging 46% across states.
  • The informal economy, which makes up an essential portion of GDP and employment, could be significantly affected by demonetization.
  • Replacing all the Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes comes with logistical and cost challenges, estimated at around Rs 12,000 crore.
  • The introduction of Rs 2000 denomination currency and the withdrawal of Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes poses challenges, as Rs 500 notes are extensively used in daily transactions.
  • The availability of Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes posed a notable challenge, as they constituted over 85% of the total currency value.
  • Long queues formed outside ATMs, and recalibrating ATMs would take weeks.
  • Replacing the old notes might take several months due to their widespread circulation.
  • Worries about rural demand and agricultural production persist, even with a good monsoon.
  • Economists predict a potential drop in GDP growth rates due to factors like money not fully re-entering the formal economy.
  • Opportunistic online service providers capitalized on the currency shortage by offering discounts, promotions, and credits, resulting in increased app downloads and transactions.

Conclusion

The effects of demonetization on various sectors have both positive and negative sides. Sectors like miniature trading, real estate, transportation, consumer goods, and agriculture could be negatively impacted. Initially, there was a rise in demand for luxury items and gold. Demonetization aims for a better future for India's economy. The GDP might drop for a few quarters in the short term before bouncing back. Black money might turn white and help address banks' NPA problems. In a long time, reducing the black money economy could bring more people into the tax system, leading to lower taxes and interest rates, benefiting the economy. Retail demand for goods and services has suffered due to demonetization.

Demonetization has two sides like a coin – one that benefits the nation and another that brings short-term and long-term challenges. Many businesses in India still rely on cash for transactions, which can cause issues. However, in the long run, demonetization offers advantages. The government is taking steps to ensure a smooth currency transition. India's future outlook is positive, and it could become a solid global economy, as predicted by our PM.